Politics
Johannesburg - Like many other Zimbabweans who found freedom and work in neighboring South Africa during Robert Mugabe's oppressive rule, dissident Muchaneta Chijakara was overjoyed to see the veteran leader ousted.
Now, the dream of returning home to her husband and five children seems almost within reach.
"I was... dancing in my house yesterday, it's like Christmas, it's like New Year," the 43-year-old said.
Chijakara, a supporter of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), left Zimbabwe in 2003.
At the time, a government crackdown on her party was in full swing.
"Next year, I'm going back home, if the industries are open... I'm not afraid of my country any more," she said.
After nearly four decades in power, Mugabe resigned Tuesday following a military takeover.
The majority of Zimbabweans had only known life under Mugabe - the world's oldest head of state - under a rule defined by brutality, rigged elections, joblessness and international isolation.
'Jobs, jobs, jobs'
His successor Emmerson Mnangagwa - known as "The Crocodile" for his ruthlessness - has promised "jobs, jobs, jobs!".
It will take many of the up to three million Zimbabweans who made South Africa their home some time before they feel ready to return.
"I'm planning to go back to Zimbabwe, as soon as I get money," said Enock Makuvire, a 28-year-old living in Johannesburg.
"As soon as I get money, obviously, I'm going to go back," he said, adding: "It wasn't by choice that I left Zimbabwe."
Asked whether he believed Mnangagwa, once one of Mugabe's closest allies, would do a better job at running the country, Makuvire said he was "confident" things would improve.
"We are not saying that everything is going to change overnight. But there is the beginning of hope."
'Investors must come first'
Ashley Shanx, a 31-year-old building painter who came to South Africa desperate for work in 2015, said he wanted to make sure the economy improves at home before he packs his bags.
"Investors must come to Zimbabwe first," Shanx said, adding that until he can sense palpable change, he will stay put.
"Mugabe has left. We can't wait to go back to our homes, but that's not going to be now."
Standing on the pavement in a busy Johannesburg neighbourhood, he and a group of Zimbabwean friends - also daily wage workers - chat, sip beers and listen to music as they wait to be recruited for the day.
With unemployment now soaring at 27 percent in South Africa, daily work has become hard to come by here too.
Many of those living in South Africa were once teachers, bankers and merchants, explained Shanx, himself a political science graduate.
But here, Zimbabweans must often settle for menial jobs, and have even suffered several waves of deadly anti-immigrant violence in recent years.
This month, Shanx has only worked 10 days. Still, he is probably better off in South Africa, with unemployment at home soaring at over 90 percent.
To kill time as they wait for work, Shanx and his friends dance to a song by Zimbabwean singer Jah Prayzah.
"You rule with an iron fist," goes one of the songs, as Shanx explains that the lyrics are about "the injustices that the people suffered under president Robert Mugabe's autocratic regime".
'Too old'
In Randburg, a well-to-do neighbourhood in northern Johannesburg, a group of mainly white Zimbabweans gather for a drink at the Sundowner bar.
Mike Odendaal, who used to own four farms in Zimbabwe before Mugabe's regime seized white landowners' farms in a policy that plunged the economy into misery, was pushed out of his land in 2010.
He has since set up a transport company in South Africa, where he plans on remaining for the rest of his days.
"I'm 64, for me to start again... I think it would be too much. I'll go invest there, but I wouldn't go back to live there," Odendaal said.
Bernard Psawarayi, a 42-year-old black Zimbabwean who is also a regular at the Sundowner, has spent the past year trying to convince fellow members of the diaspora to invest in the country.
Now that Mugabe has fallen, he says that even those who do not plan to return have something they can offer.
"Even if everybody does not come back home, people are still committed to the country," he said.
How Ramaphosa Plans to Fix S. Africa's Beleaguered Economy
By
Michael Cohen
December 18, 2017, 7:49 PM GMT+2 Updated on December 19, 2017, 3:23 PM GMT+2
ANC’s new leader targets 3% growth by 2018; 5% by 2023
New administration plans 1 million new jobs within five years
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Ramaphosa Narrowly Wins Presidency of S. Africa's ANC
Ramaphosa Narrowly Wins Presidency of S. Africa's ANC
After winning a bruising battle for control of South Africa’s ruling party, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa now faces an even more daunting task: rebuilding an economy battered by years of misrule, corruption and the appointment of incompetent officials.
Ramaphosa has pledged to reignite growth, rebuild investor confidence and tackle a 28 percent unemployment rate. He’ll be the African National Congress’s presidential candidate in 2019 elections but could take over running the country even sooner should President Jacob Zuma make an early exit.
Cyril Ramaphosa on Dec. 18.
Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg
Here’s what he plans to do:
Create at least 1 million jobs within five years
Jobs will become the centerpiece of government policy. Special economic zones will be established and tax reforms and other incentives introduced to encourage manufacturers to hire. The government will also repair its relationship with the mining industry and provide it with greater policy certainty in a bid to persuade them to take on more workers. A youth-employment program will be scaled up to provide 1 million paid internships to unemployed people within three years.
Prioritize growth and investment
The government will target 3 percent economic growth next year, up from about 0.7 percent this year, and 5 percent by 2023. It will take urgent measures to repair investor confidence, including improving institutional stability, restoring the credibility of the criminal-justice system and demonstrating that the state has the political will to turn the country’s finances around.
Going For Growth
Newly elected ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa targets GDP growth of 3% for 2018
Source: Statistics South Africa and National Treasury
What Our Economist Says...
“Credibility is quick to lose and hard to build -- it will take time for the considerable damage done to South Africa’s reputation in recent years to be reversed. This makes it unlikely that, even with fresh leadership, the government will realize Ramaphosa’s ambition for the economy to expand by 3 percent next year. Tailwinds that propelled the economy forward in 2017 are fading and unemployment is likely to remain elevated in 2018. Quick solutions to these problems would require a fiscal boost that South Africa can ill-afford.”
-- Mark Bohlund, Bloomberg Economics
Contain state debt and spending
Ramaphosa will seek to ensure the government avoids an unsustainable debt trap that would place it at the mercy of its external creditors and limit its policy options. He’ll urge it to exercise fiscal discipline to ensure resources are used for development, rather than to service debt or implement populist projects.
Higher Debt-Service Costs
South Africa's interest payments are the fastest-growing expenditure item
Source: National Treasury
Note: Years refer to fiscal years, 2018 and onwards are forecasts
Give the black majority a bigger state in the economy
The transfer of ownership and control of the economy to black South Africans will be accelerated under Ramaphosa’s plan. The government will investigate how to make black economic empowerment more effective and sustainable, and ensure communities and workers derive greater benefit. It will also promote competition in the banking industry to broaden access to financing and consider establishing a new fund backed by investors, lenders and private companies to provide backing to small and start-up businesses.
Reduce the cost of doing business
Regulations for small businesses will be reviewed to make them less onerous. Energy prices will be more effectively regulated, port tariffs will be reviewed and infrastructure will be improved. Spending on new roads, power stations, ports and other capital projects will be boosted to 1.5 trillion rand ($117 billion) over the next five years. A presidential panel will drive the implementation of large projects, reduce costs and root out corruption.
Improve the education system
The plan would get the government to work with teacher unions to improve the quality of schooling, especially in townships and rural areas. Teachers will be given additional training and support. It may be made compulsory for students to study mathematics and science until they complete school. The state would also take steps to provide free tertiary education to the poor.
Improve the management of state companies
State companies must be properly governed, managed and operated for the benefit of the public, and suitable boards and executives with the appropriate skills and experience should be appointed immediately. The firms should consider co-investing with private companies or forming strategic partnerships with them to improve their balance sheets and ability to deliver services. The government will consider forming a company to manage all its investments in state-owned enterprises.
Clamp down on graft
A judicial commission of inquiry will be established to investigate allegations that public institutions have been looted and that private companies and individuals have gained undue influence over the state. Law-enforcement agencies will be strengthened and critical state institutions will be rebuilt. Officials who have facilitated or been involved in graft will be immediately be removed from their posts and face prosecution. Stolen funds will be recovered and deposited in a special fund that will be used for youth training and employment.
